The International Energy Agency (IEA) has made a noteworthy change to its stance on global oil demand, signalling that a near-term peak is no longer assured. Under its “Current Policies Scenario” (CPS), which assumes no significant new climate policy, the IEA projects oil demand could rise to 113 million barrels per day by 2050,  up about 13% from 2024 levels. This marks a sharp pivot from earlier forecasts that envisaged demand peaking within the decade. The article notes that while this scenario isn’t the IEA’s central outlook, it underscores a growing scepticism about the timing of “peak oil.”

Underscoring a growing scepticism about the timing of “Peak Oil” – 2030, the new stance reflects IEA’s multiple dynamics: slower-than-expected uptake of electric vehicles in certain regions, persistent demand for petrochemicals and aviation fuel in emerging markets, and the sustained role of oil in global transport systems.

The change highlights implications for oil companies, investors and policy-makers. A later-than-anticipated peak suggests that legacy fossil-fuel infrastructure and investment may remain relevant longer, even as the world grapples with the energy transition. It also raises questions about how aggressively oil firms need to pivot toward clean-energy alternatives.

The IEA’s updated lens injects uncertainty into the timing of peak oil demand, emphasising that much depends on technology adoption, regional energy policies and structural shifts in demand. For industry stakeholders, that means navigating a more complex landscape, balancing longer-tail oil demand risks with accelerating clean-energy imperatives.

End Notes

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/what-now-for-peak-oil-unpacking-the-ieas-shift-on-fossil-fuel-demand.html