News Digest: No Proof Evergreen Funds Are Inflating Private Equity Secondary Prices, New Study Finds
October 28, 2026
A new study by the Institute for Private Capital (IPC) reveals that the rapid growth of evergreen funds is not artificially driving up private equity secondary market prices.
The research, conducted by Gregory Brown and William Volckmann, analyzed 2,983 buyout pricing observations between September 2015 and December 2025. It concluded that despite record transaction volumes, secondary pricing still closely aligns with historical market fundamentals.
The study highlights clear regional discrepancies and structural trends across the secondary market:
The researchers noted that larger vehicles generally command higher prices. However, the vast majority of pricing variance is driven by unobservable factors, including specific transaction circumstances and negotiating power.
The white paper emphasizes that reported Net Asset Values (NAVs) should not be used as a reasonable floor for negotiating secondary prices.
Because General Partner (GP)-reported NAVs adjust slowly, secondary market prices often react to public equity market shifts long before they are reflected in official fund valuations. The study notes that secondary discounts are a healthy reflection of liquidity costs and real-time market adjustments, rather than widespread mispricing or market distress.
While evergreen buyers accounted for over a quarter of the dataset (783 purchases), their systemic impact on pricing remains unproven:
- The Discount Model: One statistical model suggested evergreen transactions priced 5.7 percentage points below other buyers, though researchers cautioned this estimate has reliability limits.
- The Premium Model: Aggregate secondary prices from 2023 to 2025 sat 1.9 points above historical predictions, overlapping with a surge in evergreen capital.
Ultimately, the authors concluded the data is mixed. They found no definitive proof that perpetual vehicles are causing speculative excess.
The market has since adjusted downward. Industry figures show market-wide secondary pricing averaged ~83% of NAV in 2025, with buyout interests hovering around 86%. Secondary Link data from October 2026 indicates that buyout funds are currently tracking at ~87% of NAV, signaling a well-capitalized market solving for structural liquidity.