News Digest: JPM forecasts rate cut in Dec, higher terminal rate
November 23, 2024
News Digest:
J.P. Morgan Research expects the Fed to cut rates by another 25 bp in December, with further cuts only taking place once per quarter in 2025 — in contrast to its previous forecast for a 25 bp cut every meeting.
In addition, J.P. Morgan Research now looks for the Fed to conclude its cutting cycle once the policy rate reaches 3.5%, versus its earlier forecast for a 3.0% terminal rate.
“Since the September FOMC meeting, the data has generally surprised to the upside. In addition, the election has produced an appreciation in risk assets. Regardless of exactly what policies are introduced, a change in the party occupying the White House creates some new unknowns for the economy,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for J.P. Morgan. “All of these factors could argue for a more gradual pace of interest rate cuts.”